BIG DATA POLL — National Poll (February 2024)
Weight Variable = National Registered Voter File Demographics, Confidence Level = 95%
GenderAgeAge DetailRaceRace DetailWhite DetailPartyIdeologyRepublican IdentificationIndependent IdentificationEducationNon-College Working ClassIncomeEmploymentUnionUnion TypeMaritalParentalMilitary / VeteranReligion DetailEvangelicalWhite EvangelicalAreaRegionDivisionLikelihood to VotePrimary Participation ScreenLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersI voted in the 2022 midterm electionI voted in the 2020 presidential electionI voted in the 2018 midterm electionI voted in the 2016 presidential electionI've never voted2020 Presidential VoteDirection of CountryViews on current/present business conditionsViews on current/present employment conditionsExpectations regarding business conditions six months from nowExpectations regarding employment conditions six months from nowExpectations regarding total family income six months from nowBiden ApprovalBiden Approval: Economy and JobsBiden Approval: Inflation and Cost of LivingBiden Approval: Immigration and Border SecurityBiden Approval: Foreign PolicyRepublican Presidential NominationDemocratic Presidential NominationRepublican Candidate-Specific SupportDemocratic Candidate-Specific Support
TotalMaleFemaleTotal18-2930-4445-6465+Total18-2425-2930-3940-4950-6465-7475+TotalWhite / NOT HispanicBlack / African AmericanHispanic / LatinoAsian / OtherTotalWhite / NOT HispanicBlack / African AmericanHispanic / LatinoAsianAmerican Indian / Alaska NativeNative Hawaiian / Pacific IslanderOther Race / EthnicityTotalAmericanDanishDutchEnglishFrenchGermanIrishItalianNorwegianOtherPolishRussianScotch-IrishScottishSwedishTotalRepublicanDemocratIndependent / OtherTotalLiberalModerateConservativeTotalAmerica First RepublicanismTraditional RepublicanismUnsure / No opinionTotalRepublican PartyDemocratic PartyEqually alignedShare little in common with eitherTotalHigh School / LessSome / Associate4-Year / GradAdvanced / PostgradTotalWhite Non-CollegeNon-White Non-CollegeTotalUnder $30,000$30,000 - $49,999$50,000 - $99,999$100,000 - $199,999$200,000 or moreTotalEmployed, full timeEmployed, part timeUnemployed, lookingUnemployed, NOT lookingDisabledStudentRetiredTotalYesNoTotalPublicPrivateBothTotalMarriedWidowedDivorcedSeparatedSingleTotalYes, all 18 or overYes, one or more school-aged under 18Yes, one or all under 18 but not yet school-agedNoTotalMilitaryVeteranNoTotalProtestantCatholicChristian (Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)Eastern Orthodox (Greek, Russian, Other)Mormon (LDS)JewishMuslimAnother religionNo religionTotalYesNoNo opinionTotalYesNone-White EvangelicalTotalUrbanSuburbanRuralTotalNortheastMidwestSouthWestTotalNew EnglandMiddle AtlanticEast North Central West North CentralSouth AtlanticEast South CentralWest South CentralMountainPacificTotalCertain to voteLikely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 50/50Unlikely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 0 but less than 50/50Certain NOT to voteTotalDemocraticRepublicanUnlikely OR Ineligible to voteTotalLikely VotersUnlikely VotersTotalYesNoTotalYesNoTotalYesNoTotalYesNoTotalYesNoTotalJoe BidenDonald TrumpSomeone elseTotalRight directionWrong trackUnsure / No opinionTotalPositiveNeutralNegativeTotalPositiveNeutralNegativeTotalPositiveNeutralNegativeTotalPositiveNeutralNegativeTotalPositiveNeutralNegativeTotalStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveUndecidedTotalStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveUndecidedTotalStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveUndecidedTotalStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveUndecidedTotalStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveUndecidedTotalDonald TrumpNikki HaleySomeone elseUndecidedTotalJoe BidenDean PhillipsSomeone elseUndecidedTotalI would vote for the party's nomineeI would consider voting for the Democratic nomineeI would consider voting for a third party nomineeI would write-in [your choice]I would not vote at allTotalI would vote for the party's nomineeI would consider voting for the Republican nomineeI would consider voting for a third party nomineeI would write-in [[your choice]I would not vote at all
How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
Likelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to Vote
Sample Size3,005
1,424
1,581
3,005
451
746
1,090
718
3,005
273
177
466
493
877
484
234
3,005
2,152
364
294
195
3,005
2,152
364
294
96
30
9
60
2,152
1,001
9
16
468
35
160
116
98
20
79
56
21
29
21
22
3,005
1,124
1,067
814
3,005
676
1,274
1,055
1,124
520
379
225
814
211
172
186
246
3,005
808
1,034
715
448
1,087
521
566
3,005
762
689
967
478
110
3,005
1,246
379
220
130
205
65
759
3,005
392
2,613
392
234
124
34
3,005
1,442
221
369
78
895
3,005
1,148
1,146
159
552
3,005
61
326
2,619
3,005
819
726
544
24
34
82
31
175
571
1,421
740
562
119
740
528
212
3,005
739
1,496
769
3,005
550
679
1,133
643
3,005
147
403
493
186
646
162
325
207
436
3,005
2,285
510
129
81
2,924
1,242
1,387
294
3,005
2,795
210
3,005
2,163
842
3,005
2,541
464
3,005
1,979
1,026
3,005
2,306
699
3,005
404
2,601
2,541
1,260
1,257
23
3,005
725
1,940
340
3,005
803
1,229
973
3,005
951
1,043
1,011
3,005
905
1,137
963
3,005
1,007
1,043
955
3,005
843
1,012
1,150
3,005
480
703
443
1,287
92
3,005
589
685
473
1,148
111
3,005
424
546
481
1,440
114
3,005
336
554
511
1,427
178
3,005
447
594
513
1,211
241
1,389
1,047
206
68
69
1,241
862
89
129
161
1,387
552
131
199
453
51
1,243
692
127
164
213
48
Certain to vote

Count
Column %
2,285
76.0%
1,139
80.0%
1,145
72.5%
2,285
76.0%
247
54.9%
528
70.7%
861
78.9%
649
90.4%
2,285
76.0%
134
49.1%
113
63.7%
314
67.4%
370
75.1%
704
80.2%
432
89.4%
217
92.5%
2,285
76.0%
1,741
80.9%
235
64.5%
178
60.6%
130
66.7%
2,285
76.0%
1,741
80.9%
235
64.5%
178
60.6%
61
63.2%
19
62.8%
5
60.7%
45
75.1%
1,741
80.9%
818
81.7%
7
72.8%
12
79.0%
348
74.4%
25
72.8%
137
85.6%
100
86.3%
82
83.9%
18
92.0%
57
72.4%
50
89.7%
21
100.0%
24
82.6%
21
96.3%
21
91.4%
2,285
76.0%
939
83.6%
849
79.6%
497
61.0%
2,285
76.0%
562
83.1%
872
68.5%
850
80.6%
939
83.6%
451
86.8%
315
83.1%
173
76.9%
497
61.0%
159
75.4%
121
70.6%
95
51.3%
121
49.3%
2,285
76.0%
522
64.6%
775
75.0%
612
85.6%
375
83.8%
773
71.1%
376
72.1%
397
70.1%
2,285
76.0%
504
66.1%
510
74.1%
776
80.3%
410
85.8%
84
76.7%
2,285
76.0%
969
77.8%
255
67.3%
122
55.6%
78
60.0%
150
73.0%
38
57.5%
673
88.6%
2,285
76.0%
275
70.1%
2,010
76.9%
275
70.1%
174
74.3%
82
66.2%
19
55.9%
2,285
76.0%
1,175
81.5%
169
76.4%
277
75.0%
48
61.6%
616
68.9%
2,285
76.0%
830
72.4%
952
83.1%
101
63.7%
401
72.6%
2,285
76.0%
27
44.2%
265
81.4%
1,993
76.1%
2,285
76.0%
682
83.3%
562
77.5%
387
71.1%
17
70.8%
29
84.6%
72
87.5%
20
65.9%
115
65.8%
400
70.1%
1,115
78.5%
589
79.7%
447
79.5%
78
66.0%
589
79.7%
439
83.3%
150
70.7%
2,285
76.0%
543
73.4%
1,158
77.4%
584
75.9%
2,285
76.0%
430
78.1%
538
79.3%
833
73.6%
483
75.2%
2,285
76.0%
117
79.7%
312
77.5%
388
78.8%
150
80.6%
487
75.4%
122
75.0%
225
69.3%
161
77.5%
323
74.1%
2,285
76.0%
2,285
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
2,285
78.1%
980
78.9%
1,147
82.7%
157
53.6%
2,285
76.0%
2,285
81.7%
0
0.0%
2,285
76.0%
1,871
86.5%
413
49.1%
2,285
76.0%
2,143
84.3%
142
30.6%
2,285
76.0%
1,728
87.3%
556
54.2%
2,285
76.0%
1,969
85.4%
316
45.2%
2,285
76.0%
203
50.3%
2,081
80.0%
2,143
84.3%
1,061
84.2%
1,067
84.8%
15
66.7%
2,285
76.0%
589
81.1%
1,506
77.7%
190
55.9%
2,285
76.0%
642
79.9%
852
69.3%
791
81.3%
2,285
76.0%
765
80.4%
728
69.8%
792
78.3%
2,285
76.0%
719
79.5%
783
68.8%
783
81.2%
2,285
76.0%
787
78.2%
728
69.7%
770
80.6%
2,285
76.0%
631
74.9%
728
71.9%
926
80.5%
2,285
76.0%
428
89.2%
509
72.4%
270
61.0%
1,041
80.8%
37
40.0%
2,285
76.0%
517
87.8%
480
70.0%
311
65.7%
932
81.2%
45
40.7%
2,285
76.0%
370
87.3%
402
73.6%
317
66.0%
1,142
79.3%
53
46.7%
2,285
76.0%
280
83.3%
412
74.5%
341
66.8%
1,149
80.5%
102
57.5%
2,285
76.0%
388
86.9%
435
73.3%
345
67.2%
987
81.5%
129
53.6%
1,148
82.7%
894
85.4%
169
82.1%
39
57.7%
46
66.9%
979
78.9%
741
86.0%
57
64.0%
76
59.0%
104
64.9%
1,146
82.7%
478
86.5%
101
76.6%
152
76.6%
397
87.7%
18
35.5%
981
78.9%
599
86.6%
86
67.8%
114
69.5%
160
75.2%
22
45.8%
Likely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 50/50

Count
Column %
510
17.0%
209
14.6%
301
19.1%
510
17.0%
131
29.0%
151
20.2%
173
15.8%
56
7.8%
510
17.0%
85
31.2%
46
25.7%
106
22.7%
84
17.0%
134
15.3%
41
8.6%
14
6.1%
510
17.0%
303
14.1%
84
23.2%
79
26.7%
44
22.8%
510
17.0%
303
14.1%
84
23.2%
79
26.7%
27
28.4%
7
24.6%
3
31.6%
7
11.5%
303
14.1%
145
14.5%
2
27.2%
3
17.8%
77
16.5%
6
17.5%
15
9.3%
14
12.2%
11
11.3%
2
8.0%
18
22.4%
4
7.2%
0
0.0%
4
13.5%
1
3.7%
1
5.0%
510
17.0%
145
12.9%
167
15.7%
198
24.3%
510
17.0%
84
12.4%
288
22.6%
139
13.2%
145
12.9%
57
11.0%
56
14.9%
31
13.9%
198
24.3%
39
18.5%
35
20.1%
62
33.2%
62
25.4%
510
17.0%
195
24.1%
182
17.6%
80
11.1%
53
11.9%
202
18.6%
95
18.2%
107
18.9%
510
17.0%
167
21.9%
133
19.3%
141
14.6%
55
11.5%
14
12.9%
510
17.0%
201
16.2%
96
25.3%
58
26.5%
34
25.7%
33
16.1%
17
25.3%
71
9.4%
510
17.0%
84
21.3%
426
16.3%
84
21.3%
45
19.4%
28
22.3%
11
31.1%
510
17.0%
192
13.3%
35
16.0%
67
18.0%
18
22.9%
198
22.2%
510
17.0%
217
18.9%
151
13.2%
28
17.7%
114
20.6%
510
17.0%
22
36.1%
44
13.4%
445
17.0%
510
17.0%
105
12.8%
120
16.5%
113
20.7%
6
26.2%
3
9.3%
8
9.4%
8
25.0%
41
23.4%
107
18.7%
227
16.0%
117
15.8%
81
14.5%
29
24.1%
117
15.8%
72
13.7%
45
21.0%
510
17.0%
143
19.3%
234
15.6%
134
17.4%
510
17.0%
92
16.8%
96
14.2%
209
18.5%
112
17.4%
510
17.0%
22
14.9%
70
17.5%
69
13.9%
27
14.8%
117
18.1%
26
15.9%
66
20.5%
36
17.4%
76
17.5%
510
17.0%
0
0.0%
510
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
510
17.4%
223
17.9%
200
14.4%
87
29.6%
510
17.0%
510
18.3%
0
0.0%
510
17.0%
248
11.5%
262
31.2%
510
17.0%
341
13.4%
169
36.3%
510
17.0%
209
10.6%
301
29.3%
510
17.0%
279
12.1%
231
33.0%
510
17.0%
115
28.4%
395
15.2%
341
13.4%
166
13.2%
169
13.4%
7
29.2%
510
17.0%
111
15.3%
309
16.0%
90
26.5%
510
17.0%
129
16.1%
258
21.0%
123
12.6%
510
17.0%
145
15.3%
210
20.1%
155
15.3%
510
17.0%
141
15.5%
248
21.9%
121
12.6%
510
17.0%
171
17.0%
214
20.5%
125
13.1%
510
17.0%
155
18.4%
200
19.8%
155
13.5%
510
17.0%
39
8.1%
146
20.7%
131
29.5%
168
13.1%
27
29.1%
510
17.0%
50
8.5%
158
23.1%
125
26.4%
142
12.4%
35
31.2%
510
17.0%
41
9.8%
113
20.8%
124
25.8%
206
14.3%
26
22.5%
510
17.0%
33
9.8%
113
20.5%
120
23.4%
204
14.3%
41
22.8%
510
17.0%
39
8.6%
124
20.9%
122
23.9%
162
13.4%
63
26.2%
200
14.4%
130
12.5%
33
16.0%
22
31.8%
15
22.5%
223
18.0%
112
12.9%
26
29.6%
42
32.7%
43
26.6%
200
14.4%
65
11.7%
23
17.7%
40
20.0%
49
10.8%
23
45.9%
223
17.9%
82
11.9%
37
29.2%
43
26.5%
46
21.7%
14
29.1%
Unlikely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 0 but less than 50/50

Count
Column %
129
4.3%
50
3.5%
79
5.0%
129
4.3%
48
10.6%
42
5.6%
30
2.8%
9
1.3%
129
4.3%
37
13.6%
11
6.0%
29
6.1%
20
4.1%
23
2.6%
7
1.4%
3
1.1%
129
4.3%
68
3.1%
28
7.8%
22
7.6%
10
5.4%
129
4.3%
68
3.1%
28
7.8%
22
7.6%
4
4.4%
2
7.8%
1
7.7%
3
5.3%
68
3.1%
26
2.6%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
27
5.9%
3
9.7%
5
3.1%
1
0.6%
2
2.4%
0
0.0%
1
0.9%
1
1.8%
0
0.0%
1
2.2%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
129
4.3%
27
2.4%
35
3.3%
68
8.3%
129
4.3%
15
2.3%
80
6.3%
34
3.2%
27
2.4%
7
1.4%
6
1.6%
13
5.9%
68
8.3%
10
4.6%
8
4.7%
20
11.0%
29
11.9%
129
4.3%
59
7.2%
49
4.8%
13
1.8%
8
1.8%
71
6.5%
34
6.6%
37
6.5%
129
4.3%
52
6.8%
35
5.0%
30
3.1%
8
1.7%
4
3.9%
129
4.3%
50
4.0%
20
5.2%
26
11.7%
7
5.7%
12
5.8%
9
13.6%
6
0.7%
129
4.3%
27
6.9%
102
3.9%
27
6.9%
13
5.5%
11
8.6%
3
10.0%
129
4.3%
39
2.7%
12
5.4%
20
5.3%
8
9.8%
51
5.7%
129
4.3%
66
5.8%
25
2.2%
14
8.9%
23
4.2%
129
4.3%
10
16.6%
15
4.5%
104
4.0%
129
4.3%
27
3.3%
32
4.4%
25
4.5%
0
0.0%
2
6.2%
2
1.9%
2
5.6%
9
5.0%
31
5.4%
54
3.8%
22
3.0%
23
4.1%
9
7.3%
22
3.0%
11
2.1%
11
5.0%
129
4.3%
36
4.8%
65
4.4%
28
3.7%
129
4.3%
19
3.5%
28
4.2%
56
4.9%
25
4.0%
129
4.3%
5
3.3%
14
3.5%
22
4.5%
6
3.3%
31
4.8%
7
4.2%
18
5.6%
8
3.7%
18
4.1%
129
4.3%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
129
100.0%
0
0.0%
129
4.4%
39
3.1%
40
2.9%
50
16.8%
129
4.3%
0
0.0%
129
61.3%
129
4.3%
36
1.6%
93
11.1%
129
4.3%
43
1.7%
86
18.5%
129
4.3%
35
1.8%
94
9.2%
129
4.3%
46
2.0%
83
11.9%
129
4.3%
57
14.0%
72
2.8%
43
1.7%
25
2.0%
18
1.4%
0
0.0%
129
4.3%
17
2.3%
84
4.3%
29
8.4%
129
4.3%
22
2.7%
70
5.7%
37
3.8%
129
4.3%
28
2.9%
62
5.9%
39
3.9%
129
4.3%
29
3.2%
65
5.7%
35
3.6%
129
4.3%
28
2.8%
65
6.3%
35
3.7%
129
4.3%
41
4.8%
47
4.6%
42
3.6%
129
4.3%
5
1.0%
36
5.2%
27
6.0%
49
3.8%
12
12.9%
129
4.3%
13
2.2%
34
5.0%
26
5.4%
42
3.7%
14
12.7%
129
4.3%
4
1.0%
22
4.0%
27
5.5%
59
4.1%
18
15.5%
129
4.3%
13
3.8%
18
3.2%
34
6.7%
45
3.2%
19
10.6%
129
4.3%
10
2.2%
20
3.4%
38
7.3%
37
3.0%
24
10.1%
40
2.9%
22
2.1%
4
1.9%
7
10.5%
7
10.6%
39
3.2%
9
1.1%
6
6.3%
11
8.2%
14
8.5%
40
2.9%
10
1.8%
7
5.7%
7
3.5%
7
1.4%
9
18.6%
39
3.1%
10
1.5%
4
3.0%
7
4.0%
7
3.1%
12
25.1%
Certain NOT to vote

Count
Column %
81
2.7%
27
1.9%
55
3.5%
81
2.7%
25
5.5%
25
3.4%
27
2.4%
4
0.6%
81
2.7%
17
6.1%
8
4.7%
17
3.7%
18
3.7%
16
1.9%
3
0.7%
1
0.3%
81
2.7%
40
1.9%
16
4.4%
15
5.2%
10
5.2%
81
2.7%
40
1.9%
16
4.4%
15
5.2%
4
4.0%
1
4.7%
0
0.0%
5
8.1%
40
1.9%
12
1.2%
0
0.0%
1
3.2%
15
3.3%
0
0.0%
3
1.9%
1
0.9%
2
2.4%
0
0.0%
3
4.3%
1
1.3%
0
0.0%
0
1.6%
0
0.0%
1
3.6%
81
2.7%
13
1.2%
16
1.5%
52
6.4%
81
2.7%
15
2.3%
34
2.7%
32
3.0%
13
1.2%
4
0.8%
2
0.4%
7
3.2%
52
6.4%
3
1.6%
8
4.6%
8
4.5%
33
13.4%
81
2.7%
32
4.0%
27
2.6%
11
1.5%
11
2.5%
41
3.8%
16
3.1%
25
4.4%
81
2.7%
39
5.2%
11
1.5%
19
2.0%
5
1.0%
7
6.5%
81
2.7%
26
2.1%
8
2.2%
14
6.2%
11
8.6%
10
5.1%
2
3.6%
10
1.3%
81
2.7%
6
1.6%
75
2.9%
6
1.6%
2
0.8%
4
2.9%
1
2.9%
81
2.7%
37
2.5%
5
2.2%
6
1.7%
4
5.7%
29
3.3%
81
2.7%
34
3.0%
17
1.5%
15
9.7%
14
2.6%
81
2.7%
2
3.2%
2
0.6%
77
3.0%
81
2.7%
4
0.5%
11
1.5%
20
3.7%
1
3.1%
0
0.0%
1
1.2%
1
3.6%
10
5.8%
33
5.8%
25
1.7%
12
1.6%
10
1.8%
3
2.5%
12
1.6%
5
0.9%
7
3.3%
81
2.7%
18
2.5%
40
2.6%
24
3.1%
81
2.7%
9
1.6%
16
2.4%
34
3.0%
22
3.4%
81
2.7%
3
2.0%
6
1.5%
14
2.8%
2
1.3%
11
1.8%
8
4.8%
15
4.6%
3
1.5%
19
4.3%
81
2.7%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
81
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
81
2.7%
0
0.0%
81
38.7%
81
2.7%
8
0.4%
73
8.7%
81
2.7%
13
0.5%
68
14.6%
81
2.7%
6
0.3%
75
7.3%
81
2.7%
12
0.5%
69
9.9%
81
2.7%
30
7.3%
52
2.0%
13
0.5%
8
0.7%
4
0.3%
1
4.2%
81
2.7%
9
1.3%
40
2.1%
31
9.3%
81
2.7%
10
1.3%
49
4.0%
22
2.3%
81
2.7%
13
1.4%
43
4.2%
25
2.5%
81
2.7%
16
1.8%
41
3.6%
25
2.6%
81
2.7%
20
2.0%
37
3.5%
25
2.6%
81
2.7%
16
1.9%
38
3.8%
27
2.4%
81
2.7%
8
1.7%
12
1.7%
15
3.5%
29
2.3%
17
18.0%
81
2.7%
9
1.6%
13
1.9%
12
2.5%
31
2.7%
17
15.4%
81
2.7%
8
2.0%
9
1.6%
13
2.7%
34
2.3%
17
15.3%
81
2.7%
11
3.1%
10
1.9%
15
3.0%
29
2.0%
16
9.0%
81
2.7%
10
2.2%
14
2.4%
8
1.6%
25
2.1%
24
10.1%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?In which party primary / caucus for the presidential nomination will you vote next year—or are you unlikely or ineligible to participate in either?
Primary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation ScreenPrimary Participation Screen
Sample Size2,924
1,398
1,526
2,924
426
720
1,064
714
2,924
257
169
448
475
861
480
234
2,924
2,112
347
279
185
2,924
2,112
347
279
92
29
9
55
2,112
989
9
15
453
35
157
115
96
20
76
55
21
28
21
22
2,924
1,111
1,051
762
2,924
661
1,240
1,023
1,111
516
377
218
762
207
164
178
213
2,924
776
1,007
704
437
1,046
505
541
2,924
722
678
948
473
102
2,924
1,220
371
206
119
194
63
750
2,924
386
2,538
386
232
120
33
2,924
1,406
216
363
73
865
2,924
1,113
1,129
144
538
2,924
59
324
2,541
2,924
815
714
524
23
34
81
30
164
538
1,396
728
552
116
728
523
205
2,924
721
1,457
746
2,924
541
663
1,099
621
2,924
144
397
479
184
635
154
310
204
417
2,924
2,285
510
129
-
2,924
1,242
1,387
294
2,924
2,795
129
2,924
2,155
769
2,924
2,527
396
2,924
1,972
951
2,924
2,294
630
2,924
375
2,549
2,527
1,252
1,253
22
2,924
716
1,899
308
2,924
793
1,180
951
2,924
938
999
987
2,924
889
1,096
939
2,924
987
1,006
930
2,924
827
974
1,123
2,924
472
691
427
1,258
75
2,924
580
672
462
1,117
94
2,924
416
537
468
1,407
96
2,924
325
543
496
1,398
162
2,924
437
580
505
1,186
217
1,389
1,047
206
68
69
1,241
862
89
129
161
1,387
552
131
199
453
51
1,243
692
127
164
213
48
Democratic

Count
Column %
1,242
42.5%
553
39.6%
690
45.2%
1,242
42.5%
216
50.7%
331
45.9%
411
38.6%
285
39.9%
1,242
42.5%
136
53.0%
80
47.3%
203
45.2%
211
44.4%
328
38.1%
200
41.7%
84
36.1%
1,242
42.5%
776
36.7%
256
73.6%
143
51.3%
68
36.5%
1,242
42.5%
776
36.7%
256
73.6%
143
51.3%
39
41.8%
5
17.5%
3
31.2%
21
38.4%
776
36.7%
332
33.6%
2
26.7%
6
38.5%
184
40.6%
10
28.2%
62
39.5%
47
40.8%
29
29.8%
6
31.1%
37
48.7%
21
38.7%
7
35.4%
17
58.7%
6
28.7%
9
42.8%
1,242
42.5%
50
4.5%
960
91.4%
232
30.5%
1,242
42.5%
547
82.7%
580
46.8%
116
11.3%
50
4.5%
27
5.2%
15
3.9%
9
4.0%
232
30.5%
18
8.7%
121
73.6%
46
25.7%
47
22.3%
1,242
42.5%
315
40.6%
399
39.6%
309
43.8%
220
50.4%
473
45.2%
161
31.8%
312
57.7%
1,242
42.5%
328
45.4%
296
43.7%
379
40.0%
191
40.3%
48
46.8%
1,242
42.5%
526
43.1%
169
45.5%
88
42.5%
36
30.5%
87
45.0%
36
57.3%
300
40.0%
1,242
42.5%
187
48.6%
1,055
41.6%
187
48.6%
112
48.2%
60
49.8%
16
46.6%
1,242
42.5%
538
38.3%
78
36.0%
155
42.6%
28
38.2%
444
51.3%
1,242
42.5%
522
46.9%
422
37.4%
61
42.6%
238
44.2%
1,242
42.5%
28
47.1%
104
32.2%
1,110
43.7%
1,242
42.5%
274
33.6%
304
42.5%
197
37.6%
12
52.7%
5
14.4%
50
62.3%
14
47.8%
82
50.1%
303
56.4%
488
35.0%
224
30.8%
229
41.6%
35
29.8%
224
30.8%
98
18.7%
126
61.4%
1,242
42.5%
402
55.7%
599
41.1%
241
32.3%
1,242
42.5%
253
46.7%
259
39.1%
457
41.6%
274
44.1%
1,242
42.5%
62
43.1%
190
48.0%
197
41.1%
62
33.8%
273
43.0%
57
36.6%
128
41.2%
74
36.2%
200
47.9%
1,242
42.5%
980
42.9%
223
43.7%
39
30.4%
-
-
1,242
42.5%
1,242
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
1,242
42.5%
1,203
43.1%
39
30.4%
1,242
42.5%
959
44.5%
284
36.9%
1,242
42.5%
1,087
43.0%
155
39.2%
1,242
42.5%
856
43.4%
386
40.6%
1,242
42.5%
980
42.7%
262
41.6%
1,242
42.5%
173
46.1%
1,070
42.0%
1,087
43.0%
989
79.0%
97
7.7%
2
7.0%
1,242
42.5%
542
75.7%
504
26.5%
197
63.8%
1,242
42.5%
519
65.5%
525
44.5%
198
20.8%
1,242
42.5%
601
64.1%
375
37.6%
266
27.0%
1,242
42.5%
562
63.2%
480
43.8%
200
21.4%
1,242
42.5%
632
64.0%
397
39.4%
214
23.0%
1,242
42.5%
507
61.3%
456
46.8%
279
24.9%
1,242
42.5%
398
84.3%
519
75.1%
172
40.3%
117
9.3%
37
48.7%
1,242
42.5%
474
81.7%
461
68.6%
158
34.1%
108
9.7%
42
44.9%
1,242
42.5%
356
85.5%
386
71.9%
219
46.8%
227
16.1%
54
56.6%
1,242
42.5%
268
82.4%
406
74.7%
283
57.1%
184
13.1%
102
63.2%
1,242
42.5%
363
83.1%
413
71.3%
213
42.2%
136
11.5%
117
54.0%
1
0.1%
1
0.1%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
1,241
100.0%
862
100.0%
89
100.0%
129
100.0%
161
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
1,242
99.9%
692
100.0%
126
99.3%
164
100.0%
213
100.0%
48
100.0%
Republican

Count
Column %
1,387
47.5%
704
50.4%
683
44.8%
1,387
47.5%
163
38.2%
312
43.3%
550
51.7%
362
50.8%
1,387
47.5%
86
33.6%
76
45.1%
190
42.4%
221
46.5%
452
52.5%
233
48.5%
130
55.5%
1,387
47.5%
1,146
54.3%
52
14.8%
108
38.8%
81
43.9%
1,387
47.5%
1,146
54.3%
52
14.8%
108
38.8%
40
43.3%
16
55.5%
3
36.8%
22
40.0%
1,146
54.3%
577
58.3%
6
64.2%
8
50.5%
232
51.3%
20
58.9%
79
50.2%
59
51.0%
53
55.8%
12
59.5%
28
37.2%
29
52.7%
11
52.3%
11
39.0%
11
51.7%
10
47.8%
1,387
47.5%
1,036
93.2%
59
5.6%
293
38.5%
1,387
47.5%
80
12.1%
476
38.4%
831
81.2%
1,036
93.2%
478
92.7%
354
93.9%
203
93.4%
293
38.5%
150
72.6%
19
11.7%
67
37.7%
56
26.5%
1,387
47.5%
370
47.6%
512
50.8%
330
46.9%
176
40.3%
454
43.4%
291
57.7%
163
30.0%
1,387
47.5%
304
42.1%
316
46.7%
479
50.5%
240
50.7%
48
47.1%
1,387
47.5%
591
48.5%
163
44.0%
81
39.1%
64
53.8%
91
46.6%
17
27.4%
380
50.8%
1,387
47.5%
164
42.6%
1,223
48.2%
164
42.6%
104
45.0%
46
38.0%
14
43.0%
1,387
47.5%
740
52.6%
114
52.9%
178
48.9%
35
48.0%
320
37.0%
1,387
47.5%
456
40.9%
611
54.2%
62
42.9%
259
48.1%
1,387
47.5%
28
47.9%
177
54.8%
1,182
46.5%
1,387
47.5%
473
58.1%
349
48.8%
281
53.6%
11
47.3%
25
71.8%
24
29.7%
9
30.6%
60
36.4%
156
29.1%
789
56.5%
454
62.4%
273
49.4%
62
53.9%
454
62.4%
396
75.6%
59
28.6%
1,387
47.5%
251
34.8%
709
48.7%
428
57.3%
1,387
47.5%
223
41.3%
330
49.8%
543
49.4%
292
46.9%
1,387
47.5%
60
41.7%
163
41.2%
230
48.1%
100
54.1%
298
46.9%
91
58.7%
154
49.8%
109
53.3%
183
43.8%
1,387
47.5%
1,147
50.2%
200
39.3%
40
31.2%
-
-
1,387
47.5%
0
0.0%
1,387
100.0%
0
0.0%
1,387
47.5%
1,347
48.2%
40
31.2%
1,387
47.5%
1,064
49.4%
323
42.0%
1,387
47.5%
1,239
49.0%
149
37.5%
1,387
47.5%
994
50.4%
393
41.3%
1,387
47.5%
1,138
49.6%
249
39.6%
1,387
47.5%
150
39.9%
1,238
48.6%
1,239
49.0%
150
12.0%
1,077
85.9%
12
54.7%
1,387
47.5%
136
19.0%
1,192
62.7%
60
19.4%
1,387
47.5%
218
27.5%
514
43.5%
656
69.0%
1,387
47.5%
269
28.7%
485
48.5%
634
64.2%
1,387
47.5%
272
30.6%
475
43.4%
641
68.2%
1,387
47.5%
292
29.5%
476
47.3%
619
66.6%
1,387
47.5%
253
30.6%
402
41.2%
733
65.3%
1,387
47.5%
54
11.4%
115
16.6%
187
43.8%
1,017
80.8%
14
19.1%
1,387
47.5%
76
13.0%
150
22.4%
242
52.5%
899
80.5%
21
22.0%
1,387
47.5%
48
11.6%
102
18.9%
192
41.1%
1,031
73.3%
15
15.5%
1,387
47.5%
44
13.7%
89
16.4%
159
32.2%
1,070
76.5%
24
15.1%
1,387
47.5%
50
11.3%
122
21.0%
230
45.5%
932
78.6%
54
24.9%
1,387
99.9%
1,045
99.9%
206
100.0%
68
100.0%
69
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
1,387
100.0%
552
100.0%
131
100.0%
199
100.0%
453
100.0%
51
100.0%
1
0.1%
0
0.0%
1
0.7%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
Unlikely OR Ineligible to vote

Count
Column %
294
10.1%
141
10.1%
153
10.0%
294
10.1%
47
11.1%
77
10.7%
103
9.6%
67
9.4%
294
10.1%
34
13.4%
13
7.6%
55
12.4%
43
9.1%
81
9.4%
47
9.8%
20
8.5%
294
10.1%
190
9.0%
40
11.5%
28
9.9%
36
19.7%
294
10.1%
190
9.0%
40
11.5%
28
9.9%
14
15.0%
8
27.1%
3
32.0%
12
21.6%
190
9.0%
80
8.1%
1
9.1%
2
11.0%
37
8.1%
4
12.9%
16
10.3%
9
8.2%
14
14.4%
2
9.4%
11
14.1%
5
8.5%
3
12.4%
1
2.3%
4
19.7%
2
9.3%
294
10.1%
25
2.2%
32
3.1%
237
31.1%
294
10.1%
35
5.2%
183
14.8%
76
7.4%
25
2.2%
11
2.1%
9
2.3%
6
2.6%
237
31.1%
39
18.6%
24
14.7%
65
36.5%
109
51.2%
294
10.1%
91
11.7%
97
9.6%
66
9.3%
41
9.4%
120
11.4%
53
10.5%
66
12.3%
294
10.1%
90
12.5%
65
9.6%
90
9.4%
43
9.0%
6
6.2%
294
10.1%
103
8.4%
39
10.5%
38
18.4%
19
15.7%
16
8.4%
10
15.4%
69
9.2%
294
10.1%
34
8.8%
260
10.2%
34
8.8%
16
6.8%
15
12.2%
3
10.4%
294
10.1%
128
9.1%
24
11.1%
31
8.5%
10
13.8%
101
11.7%
294
10.1%
136
12.2%
96
8.5%
21
14.5%
41
7.7%
294
10.1%
3
4.9%
42
13.0%
249
9.8%
294
10.1%
68
8.3%
62
8.7%
46
8.8%
0
0.0%
5
13.8%
7
8.0%
6
21.5%
22
13.5%
78
14.5%
119
8.5%
50
6.8%
50
9.0%
19
16.2%
50
6.8%
29
5.6%
21
10.0%
294
10.1%
69
9.5%
148
10.2%
77
10.3%
294
10.1%
65
12.0%
74
11.2%
99
9.0%
56
9.0%
294
10.1%
22
15.2%
43
10.9%
52
10.8%
22
12.0%
64
10.1%
7
4.6%
28
9.0%
21
10.5%
34
8.3%
294
10.1%
157
6.9%
87
17.0%
50
38.4%
-
-
294
10.1%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
294
100.0%
294
10.1%
244
8.7%
50
38.4%
294
10.1%
132
6.1%
162
21.1%
294
10.1%
202
8.0%
92
23.3%
294
10.1%
122
6.2%
172
18.1%
294
10.1%
176
7.7%
118
18.8%
294
10.1%
52
14.0%
242
9.5%
202
8.0%
113
9.0%
80
6.4%
8
38.4%
294
10.1%
38
5.3%
204
10.8%
52
16.8%
294
10.1%
56
7.1%
141
12.0%
97
10.2%
294
10.1%
68
7.3%
139
13.9%
87
8.8%
294
10.1%
55
6.2%
141
12.9%
98
10.4%
294
10.1%
64
6.5%
133
13.2%
97
10.4%
294
10.1%
67
8.1%
116
11.9%
110
9.8%
294
10.1%
20
4.3%
57
8.3%
68
15.9%
124
9.9%
24
32.2%
294
10.1%
30
5.2%
61
9.1%
62
13.4%
110
9.8%
31
33.1%
294
10.1%
12
2.9%
49
9.1%
57
12.1%
149
10.6%
27
27.9%
294
10.1%
13
3.9%
49
8.9%
53
10.8%
144
10.3%
35
21.6%
294
10.1%
24
5.5%
45
7.7%
62
12.3%
117
9.9%
46
21.2%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%