BIG DATA POLL — Republican Primary for Kentucky's Fourth Congressional District Initial Day Tracking Poll — Friday May 15, 2026
Weight Variable = Kentucky House District 4 Voter File - Likely, Confidence Level = 95%
SexAgeGenerationRaceNon-College / CollegeIncomeReligionReligion DetailEvangelicalAreaRegionLikelihood to VoteVoter EnthusiasmVote Method
TotalMaleFemaleTotal18-2930-4445-6465+TotalGen ZMillennialsGen XBoomers / SilentTotalWhite / CaucasianBlack / African AmericanHispanic / LatinoAsian / OtherTotalNon-CollegeCollegeTotalUnder $30,000$30,000 - $49,999$50,000 - $99,999$100,000 - $199,999$200,000 or moreTotalProtestant / Other ChristianCatholicAnother religionNo religionTotalProtestant (Christian)Catholic (Christian)Christian (Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)Eastern Orthodox (Greek, Russian, Other)Mormon (LDS)JewishMuslimAnother religionNo religionTotalYesNoTotalUrbanSuburbanRuralTotalBooneCampbellKentonRest of District / RuralsTotalCertain to vote / Already votedLikely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 50/50Unlikely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 0 but less than 50/50TotalExtremelyVeryModeratelySlightlyNot at allTotalPlan to vote in-person on Election DayPlan to vote early via No-Excuse Absentee location from May 14 - 16Already voted via Excused Absentee location from May 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13Plan to vote early via mail at Drop Box locationPlan to vote via mail at Drop Box location on Election Day
How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?How likely are you to vote in the Republican primary on May 19?
Likelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to Vote
Sample Size518
272
246
518
28
86
204
200
518
28
94
162
234
518
488
17
2
12
518
282
236
518
44
57
154
195
68
518
318
142
27
31
518
165
142
143
3
6
6
2
19
31
318
191
126
518
49
287
182
518
103
75
116
225
518
418
81
19
518
259
118
97
17
28
518
390
82
25
12
10
Certain to vote / Already voted

Count
Column %
418
80.7%
223
81.9%
195
79.2%
418
80.7%
10
35.0%
69
80.1%
162
79.5%
177
88.5%
418
80.7%
10
35.0%
75
79.8%
127
78.2%
207
88.1%
418
80.7%
397
81.4%
13
76.0%
1
40.4%
7
63.9%
418
80.7%
212
75.1%
206
87.3%
418
80.7%
26
59.0%
42
73.4%
124
80.7%
166
84.9%
60
88.5%
418
80.7%
266
83.8%
115
80.6%
17
63.8%
20
63.1%
418
80.7%
148
89.8%
115
80.6%
112
78.1%
2
71.8%
4
63.7%
3
50.0%
2
100.0%
12
65.0%
20
63.1%
266
83.8%
161
84.1%
105
83.4%
418
80.7%
37
74.5%
230
80.0%
151
83.3%
418
80.7%
89
87.1%
65
86.1%
79
68.4%
185
82.2%
418
80.7%
418
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
418
80.7%
241
93.1%
96
81.2%
63
64.6%
8
47.3%
10
37.9%
418
80.7%
321
82.3%
67
82.3%
22
89.8%
5
46.1%
2
20.1%
Likely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 50/50

Count
Column %
81
15.6%
39
14.4%
42
17.0%
81
15.6%
15
52.8%
10
11.5%
37
18.3%
19
9.5%
81
15.6%
15
52.8%
11
11.3%
32
20.1%
23
9.8%
81
15.6%
73
14.9%
3
16.5%
1
59.6%
4
36.1%
81
15.6%
57
20.1%
24
10.2%
81
15.6%
15
33.6%
8
14.0%
23
14.7%
29
14.7%
7
10.0%
81
15.6%
40
12.5%
24
16.6%
8
29.3%
10
31.1%
81
15.6%
15
8.9%
24
16.6%
23
16.0%
1
28.2%
1
20.0%
3
50.0%
0
0.0%
5
25.1%
10
31.1%
40
12.5%
26
13.7%
14
10.7%
81
15.6%
8
16.9%
48
16.8%
24
13.4%
81
15.6%
11
10.6%
9
11.4%
26
22.8%
35
15.6%
81
15.6%
0
0.0%
81
100.0%
0
0.0%
81
15.6%
15
5.9%
21
18.0%
31
32.3%
5
30.0%
8
29.0%
81
15.6%
60
15.3%
10
12.7%
1
5.2%
3
29.8%
6
62.7%
Unlikely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 0 but less than 50/50

Count
Column %
19
3.7%
10
3.7%
9
3.8%
19
3.7%
3
12.2%
7
8.4%
4
2.2%
4
2.1%
19
3.7%
3
12.2%
8
8.8%
3
1.7%
5
2.1%
19
3.7%
18
3.7%
1
7.5%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
19
3.7%
14
4.8%
6
2.5%
19
3.7%
3
7.4%
7
12.6%
7
4.6%
1
0.4%
1
1.5%
19
3.7%
12
3.7%
4
2.8%
2
6.9%
2
5.8%
19
3.7%
2
1.4%
4
2.8%
8
5.9%
0
0.0%
1
16.4%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
2
10.0%
2
5.8%
12
3.7%
4
2.2%
7
5.9%
19
3.7%
4
8.6%
9
3.2%
6
3.3%
19
3.7%
2
2.3%
2
2.5%
10
8.8%
5
2.2%
19
3.7%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
19
100.0%
19
3.7%
2
0.9%
1
0.8%
3
3.1%
4
22.7%
9
33.1%
19
3.7%
10
2.4%
4
5.0%
1
5.0%
3
24.1%
2
17.2%
How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?How enthusiastic are you about voting in the upcoming primary?
Voter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter EnthusiasmVoter Enthusiasm
Sample Size518
272
246
518
28
86
204
200
518
28
94
162
234
518
488
17
2
12
518
282
236
518
44
57
154
195
68
518
318
142
27
31
518
165
142
143
3
6
6
2
19
31
318
191
126
518
49
287
182
518
103
75
116
225
518
418
81
19
518
259
118
97
17
28
518
390
82
25
12
10
Extremely

Count
Column %
259
50.0%
140
51.2%
119
48.6%
259
50.0%
9
33.2%
43
50.3%
106
51.9%
100
50.1%
259
50.0%
9
33.2%
47
49.8%
84
51.9%
119
50.6%
259
50.0%
243
49.8%
10
60.7%
2
100.0%
4
33.9%
259
50.0%
130
46.3%
128
54.4%
259
50.0%
17
38.2%
21
36.8%
79
51.5%
103
52.9%
38
56.7%
259
50.0%
157
49.4%
75
52.4%
15
56.6%
12
39.3%
259
50.0%
87
53.1%
75
52.4%
65
45.4%
1
43.5%
3
45.5%
4
58.8%
1
39.2%
11
57.5%
12
39.3%
157
49.4%
98
51.1%
59
46.8%
259
50.0%
24
48.8%
137
47.8%
98
53.6%
259
50.0%
58
56.6%
43
57.2%
46
39.5%
112
49.9%
259
50.0%
241
57.7%
15
19.0%
2
12.5%
259
50.0%
259
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
259
50.0%
196
50.2%
42
51.6%
17
69.8%
3
21.9%
1
8.8%
Very

Count
Column %
118
22.7%
58
21.3%
60
24.3%
118
22.7%
7
26.4%
16
18.6%
49
24.1%
45
22.5%
118
22.7%
7
26.4%
18
19.1%
38
23.5%
54
23.2%
118
22.7%
116
23.7%
1
7.5%
0
0.0%
1
7.5%
118
22.7%
69
24.4%
49
20.6%
118
22.7%
13
28.9%
13
22.4%
37
23.8%
42
21.8%
13
19.4%
118
22.7%
74
23.2%
34
24.2%
5
18.6%
4
14.4%
118
22.7%
39
23.8%
34
24.2%
33
23.2%
0
0.0%
1
20.0%
1
10.9%
0
0.0%
4
23.1%
4
14.4%
74
23.2%
44
23.1%
30
23.5%
118
22.7%
10
20.7%
67
23.2%
41
22.4%
118
22.7%
25
24.3%
11
15.0%
30
25.7%
52
23.0%
118
22.7%
96
22.9%
21
26.1%
1
4.9%
118
22.7%
0
0.0%
118
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
118
22.7%
96
24.6%
14
17.0%
3
12.6%
4
32.5%
1
9.7%
Moderately

Count
Column %
97
18.7%
51
18.7%
46
18.7%
97
18.7%
9
33.7%
18
21.3%
30
14.7%
39
19.6%
97
18.7%
9
33.7%
20
21.1%
24
14.6%
44
18.9%
97
18.7%
91
18.7%
4
23.5%
0
0.0%
2
15.8%
97
18.7%
55
19.5%
42
17.8%
97
18.7%
10
23.6%
18
31.4%
25
16.1%
37
19.2%
7
9.6%
97
18.7%
64
20.1%
22
15.8%
2
6.4%
9
28.7%
97
18.7%
30
18.2%
22
15.8%
31
21.5%
2
56.5%
1
18.2%
1
13.0%
0
0.0%
1
4.8%
9
28.7%
64
20.1%
36
18.8%
28
22.1%
97
18.7%
12
24.5%
54
18.7%
31
17.3%
97
18.7%
13
12.8%
17
23.0%
25
21.2%
42
18.7%
97
18.7%
63
15.0%
31
38.7%
3
15.5%
97
18.7%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
97
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
97
18.7%
71
18.3%
15
18.0%
2
7.5%
4
36.7%
5
50.1%
Slightly

Count
Column %
17
3.3%
8
2.9%
9
3.7%
17
3.3%
1
3.4%
2
2.7%
5
2.5%
9
4.3%
17
3.3%
1
3.4%
2
2.4%
4
2.7%
9
4.0%
17
3.3%
13
2.6%
1
8.2%
0
0.0%
3
23.2%
17
3.3%
13
4.5%
4
1.9%
17
3.3%
3
7.4%
3
5.6%
4
2.5%
5
2.4%
2
2.9%
17
3.3%
9
2.7%
5
3.2%
3
10.6%
1
3.0%
17
3.3%
3
1.9%
5
3.2%
5
3.7%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
1
60.8%
2
9.4%
1
3.0%
9
2.7%
4
2.1%
5
3.6%
17
3.3%
1
1.9%
10
3.6%
6
3.1%
17
3.3%
3
2.7%
3
3.4%
9
7.9%
3
1.1%
17
3.3%
8
1.9%
5
6.3%
4
19.9%
17
3.3%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
17
100.0%
0
0.0%
17
3.3%
12
3.0%
3
3.9%
1
4.5%
0
0.0%
1
8.5%
Not at all

Count
Column %
28
5.3%
16
5.9%
12
4.7%
28
5.3%
1
3.3%
6
7.1%
14
6.7%
7
3.5%
28
5.3%
1
3.3%
7
7.6%
12
7.3%
8
3.3%
28
5.3%
25
5.2%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
2
19.7%
28
5.3%
15
5.4%
13
5.3%
28
5.3%
1
1.9%
2
3.9%
9
6.1%
7
3.8%
8
11.4%
28
5.3%
15
4.6%
6
4.4%
2
7.7%
5
14.6%
28
5.3%
5
2.9%
6
4.4%
9
6.2%
0
0.0%
1
16.4%
1
17.3%
0
0.0%
1
5.2%
5
14.6%
15
4.6%
10
5.0%
5
4.0%
28
5.3%
2
4.1%
19
6.7%
7
3.6%
28
5.3%
4
3.7%
1
1.4%
7
5.6%
16
7.3%
28
5.3%
10
2.5%
8
9.9%
9
47.2%
28
5.3%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
28
100.0%
28
5.3%
15
3.9%
8
9.5%
1
5.5%
1
9.0%
2
22.8%
Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?Which of the following applies to you—you have already voted at an Excused Absentee location; you plan to vote before Election Day at a No-Excuse Absentee location or Drop Box location for mail ballots—or you plan to vote on Election Day at a Drop Box for mail or in-person?
Vote MethodVote MethodVote MethodVote MethodVote MethodVote MethodVote MethodVote MethodVote MethodVote MethodVote MethodVote MethodVote MethodVote Method
Sample Size518
272
246
518
28
86
204
200
518
28
94
162
234
518
488
17
2
12
518
282
236
518
44
57
154
195
68
518
318
142
27
31
518
165
142
143
3
6
6
2
19
31
318
191
126
518
49
287
182
518
103
75
116
225
518
418
81
19
518
259
118
97
17
28
518
390
82
25
12
10
Plan to vote in-person on Election Day

Count
Column %
390
75.3%
210
77.2%
180
73.3%
390
75.3%
13
46.7%
62
72.0%
168
82.1%
148
73.8%
390
75.3%
13
46.7%
70
74.3%
130
80.5%
177
75.6%
390
75.3%
373
76.5%
9
54.8%
1
40.4%
7
63.6%
390
75.3%
214
75.8%
176
74.7%
390
75.3%
30
67.1%
43
74.2%
108
70.4%
159
81.5%
51
74.9%
390
75.3%
242
76.1%
110
77.5%
17
64.5%
21
66.6%
390
75.3%
135
81.8%
110
77.5%
101
70.6%
2
71.8%
4
58.1%
3
38.9%
1
39.2%
14
75.8%
21
66.6%
242
76.1%
152
79.2%
90
71.5%
390
75.3%
35
71.7%
208
72.4%
147
80.9%
390
75.3%
81
79.2%
60
79.3%
77
66.7%
172
76.7%
390
75.3%
321
76.8%
60
73.8%
10
49.3%
390
75.3%
196
75.7%
96
81.5%
71
73.5%
12
69.9%
15
55.1%
390
75.3%
390
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
Plan to vote early via No-Excuse Absentee location from May 14 - 16

Count
Column %
82
15.8%
40
14.5%
42
17.2%
82
15.8%
4
14.6%
15
17.8%
25
12.5%
37
18.5%
82
15.8%
4
14.6%
15
16.3%
22
13.3%
41
17.4%
82
15.8%
75
15.3%
4
22.2%
1
59.6%
2
17.1%
82
15.8%
39
13.7%
43
18.3%
82
15.8%
5
11.9%
8
14.5%
32
20.5%
23
11.6%
14
20.9%
82
15.8%
53
16.7%
20
13.9%
5
18.1%
4
13.2%
82
15.8%
20
12.2%
20
13.9%
32
22.5%
0
0.0%
1
11.0%
3
47.9%
0
0.0%
2
9.6%
4
13.2%
53
16.7%
26
13.7%
27
21.2%
82
15.8%
8
16.8%
48
16.8%
25
13.9%
82
15.8%
10
9.6%
8
10.6%
25
21.8%
39
17.3%
82
15.8%
67
16.1%
10
12.8%
4
21.2%
82
15.8%
42
16.3%
14
11.8%
15
15.2%
3
18.7%
8
28.2%
82
15.8%
0
0.0%
82
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
Already voted via Excused Absentee location from May 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13

Count
Column %
25
4.8%
8
3.1%
16
6.6%
25
4.8%
5
16.8%
5
5.7%
3
1.5%
12
6.0%
25
4.8%
5
16.8%
5
5.3%
3
1.9%
12
5.1%
25
4.8%
21
4.3%
2
14.0%
0
0.0%
1
9.7%
25
4.8%
13
4.7%
11
4.8%
25
4.8%
5
12.0%
1
2.2%
9
5.8%
7
3.7%
2
2.9%
25
4.8%
14
4.4%
4
3.0%
3
10.5%
4
12.0%
25
4.8%
7
4.1%
4
3.0%
5
3.7%
1
28.2%
1
14.5%
1
13.2%
1
60.8%
1
4.6%
4
12.0%
14
4.4%
9
4.5%
5
4.1%
25
4.8%
2
4.7%
18
6.3%
4
2.4%
25
4.8%
8
7.9%
2
2.7%
8
6.7%
7
3.0%
25
4.8%
22
5.3%
1
1.6%
1
6.4%
25
4.8%
17
6.7%
3
2.6%
2
1.9%
1
6.6%
1
4.9%
25
4.8%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
25
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
Plan to vote early via mail at Drop Box location

Count
Column %
12
2.2%
8
2.8%
4
1.6%
12
2.2%
4
14.0%
4
4.5%
3
1.5%
1
0.4%
12
2.2%
4
14.0%
4
4.1%
2
1.2%
2
0.8%
12
2.2%
10
2.1%
1
9.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
12
2.2%
9
3.1%
3
1.3%
12
2.2%
3
6.8%
4
7.5%
1
0.6%
3
1.7%
0
0.0%
12
2.2%
6
1.8%
2
1.7%
2
6.9%
2
5.5%
12
2.2%
2
1.3%
2
1.7%
3
1.7%
0
0.0%
1
16.4%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
2
10.0%
2
5.5%
6
1.8%
4
1.9%
2
1.6%
12
2.2%
2
4.8%
7
2.4%
3
1.4%
12
2.2%
2
2.0%
4
4.8%
4
3.2%
2
1.0%
12
2.2%
5
1.3%
3
4.3%
3
14.5%
12
2.2%
3
1.0%
4
3.2%
4
4.4%
0
0.0%
1
3.8%
12
2.2%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
12
100.0%
0
0.0%
Plan to vote via mail at Drop Box location on Election Day

Count
Column %
10
1.9%
6
2.4%
3
1.3%
10
1.9%
2
8.0%
0
0.0%
5
2.4%
3
1.3%
10
1.9%
2
8.0%
0
0.0%
5
3.1%
3
1.1%
10
1.9%
9
1.8%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
1
9.5%
10
1.9%
8
2.8%
2
0.8%
10
1.9%
1
2.2%
1
1.6%
4
2.7%
3
1.5%
1
1.3%
10
1.9%
3
1.0%
6
3.9%
0
0.0%
1
2.7%
10
1.9%
1
0.7%
6
3.9%
2
1.6%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
1
2.7%
3
1.0%
1
0.7%
2
1.5%
10
1.9%
1
1.9%
6
2.1%
3
1.5%
10
1.9%
1
1.3%
2
2.6%
2
1.7%
4
2.0%
10
1.9%
2
0.5%
6
7.5%
2
8.7%
10
1.9%
1
0.3%
1
0.8%
5
5.0%
1
4.9%
2
8.1%
10
1.9%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
10
100.0%