BIG DATA POLL — National Poll (February 2024)
Weight Variable = National Registered Voter File Demographics, Confidence Level = 95%
GenderAgeAge DetailRaceRace DetailWhite DetailPartyIdeologyRepublican IdentificationIndependent IdentificationEducationNon-College Working ClassIncomeEmploymentUnionUnion TypeMaritalParentalMilitary / VeteranReligion DetailEvangelicalWhite EvangelicalAreaRegionDivisionLikelihood to VotePrimary Participation ScreenLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersI voted in the 2022 midterm electionI voted in the 2020 presidential electionI voted in the 2018 midterm electionI voted in the 2016 presidential electionI've never voted2020 Presidential VoteDirection of CountryViews on current/present business conditionsViews on current/present employment conditionsExpectations regarding business conditions six months from nowExpectations regarding employment conditions six months from nowExpectations regarding total family income six months from nowBiden ApprovalBiden Approval: Economy and JobsBiden Approval: Inflation and Cost of LivingBiden Approval: Immigration and Border SecurityBiden Approval: Foreign PolicyRepublican Presidential NominationDemocratic Presidential NominationRepublican Candidate-Specific SupportDemocratic Candidate-Specific Support
TotalMaleFemaleTotal18-2930-4445-6465+Total18-2425-2930-3940-4950-6465-7475+TotalWhite / NOT HispanicBlack / African AmericanHispanic / LatinoAsian / OtherTotalWhite / NOT HispanicBlack / African AmericanHispanic / LatinoAsianAmerican Indian / Alaska NativeNative Hawaiian / Pacific IslanderOther Race / EthnicityTotalAmericanDanishDutchEnglishFrenchGermanIrishItalianNorwegianOtherPolishRussianScotch-IrishScottishSwedishTotalRepublicanDemocratIndependent / OtherTotalLiberalModerateConservativeTotalAmerica First RepublicanismTraditional RepublicanismUnsure / No opinionTotalRepublican PartyDemocratic PartyEqually alignedShare little in common with eitherTotalHigh School / LessSome / Associate4-Year / GradAdvanced / PostgradTotalWhite Non-CollegeNon-White Non-CollegeTotalUnder $30,000$30,000 - $49,999$50,000 - $99,999$100,000 - $199,999$200,000 or moreTotalEmployed, full timeEmployed, part timeUnemployed, lookingUnemployed, NOT lookingDisabledStudentRetiredTotalYesNoTotalPublicPrivateBothTotalMarriedWidowedDivorcedSeparatedSingleTotalYes, all 18 or overYes, one or more school-aged under 18Yes, one or all under 18 but not yet school-agedNoTotalMilitaryVeteranNoTotalProtestantCatholicChristian (Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)Eastern Orthodox (Greek, Russian, Other)Mormon (LDS)JewishMuslimAnother religionNo religionTotalYesNoNo opinionTotalYesNone-White EvangelicalTotalUrbanSuburbanRuralTotalNortheastMidwestSouthWestTotalNew EnglandMiddle AtlanticEast North Central West North CentralSouth AtlanticEast South CentralWest South CentralMountainPacificTotalCertain to voteLikely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 50/50Unlikely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 0 but less than 50/50Certain NOT to voteTotalDemocraticRepublicanUnlikely OR Ineligible to voteTotalLikely VotersUnlikely VotersTotalYesNoTotalYesNoTotalYesNoTotalYesNoTotalYesNoTotalJoe BidenDonald TrumpSomeone elseTotalRight directionWrong trackUnsure / No opinionTotalPositiveNeutralNegativeTotalPositiveNeutralNegativeTotalPositiveNeutralNegativeTotalPositiveNeutralNegativeTotalPositiveNeutralNegativeTotalStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveUndecidedTotalStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveUndecidedTotalStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveUndecidedTotalStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveUndecidedTotalStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveUndecidedTotalDonald TrumpNikki HaleySomeone elseUndecidedTotalJoe BidenDean PhillipsSomeone elseUndecidedTotalI would vote for the party's nomineeI would consider voting for the Democratic nomineeI would consider voting for a third party nomineeI would write-in [your choice]I would not vote at allTotalI would vote for the party's nomineeI would consider voting for the Republican nomineeI would consider voting for a third party nomineeI would write-in [[your choice]I would not vote at all
How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
Likelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to VoteLikelihood to Vote
Sample Size3,005
1,424
1,581
3,005
451
746
1,090
718
3,005
273
177
466
493
877
484
234
3,005
2,152
364
294
195
3,005
2,152
364
294
96
30
9
60
2,152
1,001
9
16
468
35
160
116
98
20
79
56
21
29
21
22
3,005
1,124
1,067
814
3,005
676
1,274
1,055
1,124
520
379
225
814
211
172
186
246
3,005
808
1,034
715
448
1,087
521
566
3,005
762
689
967
478
110
3,005
1,246
379
220
130
205
65
759
3,005
392
2,613
392
234
124
34
3,005
1,442
221
369
78
895
3,005
1,148
1,146
159
552
3,005
61
326
2,619
3,005
819
726
544
24
34
82
31
175
571
1,421
740
562
119
740
528
212
3,005
739
1,496
769
3,005
550
679
1,133
643
3,005
147
403
493
186
646
162
325
207
436
3,005
2,285
510
129
81
2,924
1,242
1,387
294
3,005
2,795
210
3,005
2,163
842
3,005
2,541
464
3,005
1,979
1,026
3,005
2,306
699
3,005
404
2,601
2,541
1,260
1,257
23
3,005
725
1,940
340
3,005
803
1,229
973
3,005
951
1,043
1,011
3,005
905
1,137
963
3,005
1,007
1,043
955
3,005
843
1,012
1,150
3,005
480
703
443
1,287
92
3,005
589
685
473
1,148
111
3,005
424
546
481
1,440
114
3,005
336
554
511
1,427
178
3,005
447
594
513
1,211
241
1,389
1,047
206
68
69
1,241
862
89
129
161
1,387
552
131
199
453
51
1,243
692
127
164
213
48
Certain to vote

Count
Column %
2,285
76.0%
1,139
80.0%
1,145
72.5%
2,285
76.0%
247
54.9%
528
70.7%
861
78.9%
649
90.4%
2,285
76.0%
134
49.1%
113
63.7%
314
67.4%
370
75.1%
704
80.2%
432
89.4%
217
92.5%
2,285
76.0%
1,741
80.9%
235
64.5%
178
60.6%
130
66.7%
2,285
76.0%
1,741
80.9%
235
64.5%
178
60.6%
61
63.2%
19
62.8%
5
60.7%
45
75.1%
1,741
80.9%
818
81.7%
7
72.8%
12
79.0%
348
74.4%
25
72.8%
137
85.6%
100
86.3%
82
83.9%
18
92.0%
57
72.4%
50
89.7%
21
100.0%
24
82.6%
21
96.3%
21
91.4%
2,285
76.0%
939
83.6%
849
79.6%
497
61.0%
2,285
76.0%
562
83.1%
872
68.5%
850
80.6%
939
83.6%
451
86.8%
315
83.1%
173
76.9%
497
61.0%
159
75.4%
121
70.6%
95
51.3%
121
49.3%
2,285
76.0%
522
64.6%
775
75.0%
612
85.6%
375
83.8%
773
71.1%
376
72.1%
397
70.1%
2,285
76.0%
504
66.1%
510
74.1%
776
80.3%
410
85.8%
84
76.7%
2,285
76.0%
969
77.8%
255
67.3%
122
55.6%
78
60.0%
150
73.0%
38
57.5%
673
88.6%
2,285
76.0%
275
70.1%
2,010
76.9%
275
70.1%
174
74.3%
82
66.2%
19
55.9%
2,285
76.0%
1,175
81.5%
169
76.4%
277
75.0%
48
61.6%
616
68.9%
2,285
76.0%
830
72.4%
952
83.1%
101
63.7%
401
72.6%
2,285
76.0%
27
44.2%
265
81.4%
1,993
76.1%
2,285
76.0%
682
83.3%
562
77.5%
387
71.1%
17
70.8%
29
84.6%
72
87.5%
20
65.9%
115
65.8%
400
70.1%
1,115
78.5%
589
79.7%
447
79.5%
78
66.0%
589
79.7%
439
83.3%
150
70.7%
2,285
76.0%
543
73.4%
1,158
77.4%
584
75.9%
2,285
76.0%
430
78.1%
538
79.3%
833
73.6%
483
75.2%
2,285
76.0%
117
79.7%
312
77.5%
388
78.8%
150
80.6%
487
75.4%
122
75.0%
225
69.3%
161
77.5%
323
74.1%
2,285
76.0%
2,285
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
2,285
78.1%
980
78.9%
1,147
82.7%
157
53.6%
2,285
76.0%
2,285
81.7%
0
0.0%
2,285
76.0%
1,871
86.5%
413
49.1%
2,285
76.0%
2,143
84.3%
142
30.6%
2,285
76.0%
1,728
87.3%
556
54.2%
2,285
76.0%
1,969
85.4%
316
45.2%
2,285
76.0%
203
50.3%
2,081
80.0%
2,143
84.3%
1,061
84.2%
1,067
84.8%
15
66.7%
2,285
76.0%
589
81.1%
1,506
77.7%
190
55.9%
2,285
76.0%
642
79.9%
852
69.3%
791
81.3%
2,285
76.0%
765
80.4%
728
69.8%
792
78.3%
2,285
76.0%
719
79.5%
783
68.8%
783
81.2%
2,285
76.0%
787
78.2%
728
69.7%
770
80.6%
2,285
76.0%
631
74.9%
728
71.9%
926
80.5%
2,285
76.0%
428
89.2%
509
72.4%
270
61.0%
1,041
80.8%
37
40.0%
2,285
76.0%
517
87.8%
480
70.0%
311
65.7%
932
81.2%
45
40.7%
2,285
76.0%
370
87.3%
402
73.6%
317
66.0%
1,142
79.3%
53
46.7%
2,285
76.0%
280
83.3%
412
74.5%
341
66.8%
1,149
80.5%
102
57.5%
2,285
76.0%
388
86.9%
435
73.3%
345
67.2%
987
81.5%
129
53.6%
1,148
82.7%
894
85.4%
169
82.1%
39
57.7%
46
66.9%
979
78.9%
741
86.0%
57
64.0%
76
59.0%
104
64.9%
1,146
82.7%
478
86.5%
101
76.6%
152
76.6%
397
87.7%
18
35.5%
981
78.9%
599
86.6%
86
67.8%
114
69.5%
160
75.2%
22
45.8%
Likely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 50/50

Count
Column %
510
17.0%
209
14.6%
301
19.1%
510
17.0%
131
29.0%
151
20.2%
173
15.8%
56
7.8%
510
17.0%
85
31.2%
46
25.7%
106
22.7%
84
17.0%
134
15.3%
41
8.6%
14
6.1%
510
17.0%
303
14.1%
84
23.2%
79
26.7%
44
22.8%
510
17.0%
303
14.1%
84
23.2%
79
26.7%
27
28.4%
7
24.6%
3
31.6%
7
11.5%
303
14.1%
145
14.5%
2
27.2%
3
17.8%
77
16.5%
6
17.5%
15
9.3%
14
12.2%
11
11.3%
2
8.0%
18
22.4%
4
7.2%
0
0.0%
4
13.5%
1
3.7%
1
5.0%
510
17.0%
145
12.9%
167
15.7%
198
24.3%
510
17.0%
84
12.4%
288
22.6%
139
13.2%
145
12.9%
57
11.0%
56
14.9%
31
13.9%
198
24.3%
39
18.5%
35
20.1%
62
33.2%
62
25.4%
510
17.0%
195
24.1%
182
17.6%
80
11.1%
53
11.9%
202
18.6%
95
18.2%
107
18.9%
510
17.0%
167
21.9%
133
19.3%
141
14.6%
55
11.5%
14
12.9%
510
17.0%
201
16.2%
96
25.3%
58
26.5%
34
25.7%
33
16.1%
17
25.3%
71
9.4%
510
17.0%
84
21.3%
426
16.3%
84
21.3%
45
19.4%
28
22.3%
11
31.1%
510
17.0%
192
13.3%
35
16.0%
67
18.0%
18
22.9%
198
22.2%
510
17.0%
217
18.9%
151
13.2%
28
17.7%
114
20.6%
510
17.0%
22
36.1%
44
13.4%
445
17.0%
510
17.0%
105
12.8%
120
16.5%
113
20.7%
6
26.2%
3
9.3%
8
9.4%
8
25.0%
41
23.4%
107
18.7%
227
16.0%
117
15.8%
81
14.5%
29
24.1%
117
15.8%
72
13.7%
45
21.0%
510
17.0%
143
19.3%
234
15.6%
134
17.4%
510
17.0%
92
16.8%
96
14.2%
209
18.5%
112
17.4%
510
17.0%
22
14.9%
70
17.5%
69
13.9%
27
14.8%
117
18.1%
26
15.9%
66
20.5%
36
17.4%
76
17.5%
510
17.0%
0
0.0%
510
100.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
510
17.4%
223
17.9%
200
14.4%
87
29.6%
510
17.0%
510
18.3%
0
0.0%
510
17.0%
248
11.5%
262
31.2%
510
17.0%
341
13.4%
169
36.3%
510
17.0%
209
10.6%
301
29.3%
510
17.0%
279
12.1%
231
33.0%
510
17.0%
115
28.4%
395
15.2%
341
13.4%
166
13.2%
169
13.4%
7
29.2%
510
17.0%
111
15.3%
309
16.0%
90
26.5%
510
17.0%
129
16.1%
258
21.0%
123
12.6%
510
17.0%
145
15.3%
210
20.1%
155
15.3%
510
17.0%
141
15.5%
248
21.9%
121
12.6%
510
17.0%
171
17.0%
214
20.5%
125
13.1%
510
17.0%
155
18.4%
200
19.8%
155
13.5%
510
17.0%
39
8.1%
146
20.7%
131
29.5%
168
13.1%
27
29.1%
510
17.0%
50
8.5%
158
23.1%
125
26.4%
142
12.4%
35
31.2%
510
17.0%
41
9.8%
113
20.8%
124
25.8%
206
14.3%
26
22.5%
510
17.0%
33
9.8%
113
20.5%
120
23.4%
204
14.3%
41
22.8%
510
17.0%
39
8.6%
124
20.9%
122
23.9%
162
13.4%
63
26.2%
200
14.4%
130
12.5%
33
16.0%
22
31.8%
15
22.5%
223
18.0%
112
12.9%
26
29.6%
42
32.7%
43
26.6%
200
14.4%
65
11.7%
23
17.7%
40
20.0%
49
10.8%
23
45.9%
223
17.9%
82
11.9%
37
29.2%
43
26.5%
46
21.7%
14
29.1%
Unlikely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 0 but less than 50/50

Count
Column %
129
4.3%
50
3.5%
79
5.0%
129
4.3%
48
10.6%
42
5.6%
30
2.8%
9
1.3%
129
4.3%
37
13.6%
11
6.0%
29
6.1%
20
4.1%
23
2.6%
7
1.4%
3
1.1%
129
4.3%
68
3.1%
28
7.8%
22
7.6%
10
5.4%
129
4.3%
68
3.1%
28
7.8%
22
7.6%
4
4.4%
2
7.8%
1
7.7%
3
5.3%
68
3.1%
26
2.6%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
27
5.9%
3
9.7%
5
3.1%
1
0.6%
2
2.4%
0
0.0%
1
0.9%
1
1.8%
0
0.0%
1
2.2%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
129
4.3%
27
2.4%
35
3.3%
68
8.3%
129
4.3%
15
2.3%
80
6.3%
34
3.2%
27
2.4%
7
1.4%
6
1.6%
13
5.9%
68
8.3%
10
4.6%
8
4.7%
20
11.0%
29
11.9%
129
4.3%
59
7.2%
49
4.8%
13
1.8%
8
1.8%
71
6.5%
34
6.6%
37
6.5%
129
4.3%
52
6.8%
35
5.0%
30
3.1%
8
1.7%
4
3.9%
129
4.3%
50
4.0%
20
5.2%
26
11.7%
7
5.7%
12
5.8%
9
13.6%
6
0.7%
129
4.3%
27
6.9%
102
3.9%
27
6.9%
13
5.5%
11
8.6%
3
10.0%
129
4.3%
39
2.7%
12
5.4%
20
5.3%
8
9.8%
51
5.7%
129
4.3%
66
5.8%
25
2.2%
14
8.9%
23
4.2%
129
4.3%
10
16.6%
15
4.5%
104
4.0%
129
4.3%
27
3.3%
32
4.4%
25
4.5%
0
0.0%
2
6.2%
2
1.9%
2
5.6%
9
5.0%
31
5.4%
54
3.8%
22
3.0%
23
4.1%
9
7.3%
22
3.0%
11
2.1%
11
5.0%
129
4.3%
36
4.8%
65
4.4%
28
3.7%
129
4.3%
19
3.5%
28
4.2%
56
4.9%
25
4.0%
129
4.3%
5
3.3%
14
3.5%
22
4.5%
6
3.3%
31
4.8%
7
4.2%
18
5.6%
8
3.7%
18
4.1%
129
4.3%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
129
100.0%
0
0.0%
129
4.4%
39
3.1%
40
2.9%
50
16.8%
129
4.3%
0
0.0%
129
61.3%
129
4.3%
36
1.6%
93
11.1%
129
4.3%
43
1.7%
86
18.5%
129
4.3%
35
1.8%
94
9.2%
129
4.3%
46
2.0%
83
11.9%
129
4.3%
57
14.0%
72
2.8%
43
1.7%
25
2.0%
18
1.4%
0
0.0%
129
4.3%
17
2.3%
84
4.3%
29
8.4%
129
4.3%
22
2.7%
70
5.7%
37
3.8%
129
4.3%
28
2.9%
62
5.9%
39
3.9%
129
4.3%
29
3.2%
65
5.7%
35
3.6%
129
4.3%
28
2.8%
65
6.3%
35
3.7%
129
4.3%
41
4.8%
47
4.6%
42
3.6%
129
4.3%
5
1.0%
36
5.2%
27
6.0%
49
3.8%
12
12.9%
129
4.3%
13
2.2%
34
5.0%
26
5.4%
42
3.7%
14
12.7%
129
4.3%
4
1.0%
22
4.0%
27
5.5%
59
4.1%
18
15.5%
129
4.3%
13
3.8%
18
3.2%
34
6.7%
45
3.2%
19
10.6%
129
4.3%
10
2.2%
20
3.4%
38
7.3%
37
3.0%
24
10.1%
40
2.9%
22
2.1%
4
1.9%
7
10.5%
7
10.6%
39
3.2%
9
1.1%
6
6.3%
11
8.2%
14
8.5%
40
2.9%
10
1.8%
7
5.7%
7
3.5%
7
1.4%
9
18.6%
39
3.1%
10
1.5%
4
3.0%
7
4.0%
7
3.1%
12
25.1%
Certain NOT to vote

Count
Column %
81
2.7%
27
1.9%
55
3.5%
81
2.7%
25
5.5%
25
3.4%
27
2.4%
4
0.6%
81
2.7%
17
6.1%
8
4.7%
17
3.7%
18
3.7%
16
1.9%
3
0.7%
1
0.3%
81
2.7%
40
1.9%
16
4.4%
15
5.2%
10
5.2%
81
2.7%
40
1.9%
16
4.4%
15
5.2%
4
4.0%
1
4.7%
0
0.0%
5
8.1%
40
1.9%
12
1.2%
0
0.0%
1
3.2%
15
3.3%
0
0.0%
3
1.9%
1
0.9%
2
2.4%
0
0.0%
3
4.3%