Rust Belt Poll: Keystone Battleground (March-April 2024)
Confidence Level = 95%
GenderRaceEthnicityPartyIdeologyRepublican IdentificationUnaffiliated IdentificationEducationCollege Non-CollegeEducation By RaceEducation By Race AND GenderIncomeEmploymentUnionUnion TypeMaritalParentalReligionEvangelicalAreaRegion Detail
TotalMaleFemaleTotalWhite / CaucasianBlack / African AmericanHispanic / LatinoAsian / OtherTotalAmericanDanishDutchEnglishFrenchGermanIrishItalianNon-whiteNorwegianOtherPolishRussianScotch-IrishScottishSwedishTotalRepublicanDemocratIndependent / OtherTotalLiberalModerateConservativeTotalAmerica First RepublicanismTraditional RepublicanismUnsure / No opinionTotalDemocratic PartyEqually alignedRepublican PartyShare little in common with eitherTotalHigh School / LessSome / Associate4-Year / GradAdvanced / PostgradTotal2-Year / Less4-Year Grad / HigherTotalWhite Non-CollegeWhite CollegeNon-White Non-CollegeNon-White CollegeTotalWhite Non-College MenWhite Non-College WomenWhite College MenWhite College WomenNon-White Non-College MenNon-White Non-College WomenNon-White College MenNon-White College FemaleTotalUnder $30,000$30,000 - $49,999$50,000 - $99,999$100,000 - $199,999$200,000 or moreTotalEmployed, full timeEmployed, part timeUnemployed, lookingUnemployed, NOT lookingDisabledStudentRetiredTotalYesNoTotalPublicPrivateBothTotalMarriedWidowedDivorcedSeparatedSingleTotalYes, all 18 or overYes, one or more school-aged under 18Yes, one or all under 18 but not yet school-agedNoTotalProtestant / Other ChristianCatholicJewishAnother religionNo religionTotalYesNoTotalUrbanSuburbanRuralTotalPhiladelphiaSoutheast / Philly SuburbsNortheastDutchCentralAlleghenyWest
In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?In which state are you registered and eligible to vote—or, are you not registered and eligible to vote in any of these states?
Registered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter ScreenRegistered Voter Screen
Sample Size1,305
552
753
1,305
1,081
158
39
27
1,305
617
2
5
261
6
112
77
65
24
3
59
44
10
9
8
3
1,305
498
517
290
1,305
276
628
401
498
208
172
118
290
65
73
59
93
1,305
422
428
288
167
1,305
850
455
1,305
688
393
162
62
1,305
260
428
187
206
80
82
25
37
1,305
316
295
383
245
66
1,305
558
142
88
72
115
27
303
1,305
185
1,120
185
112
56
17
1,305
630
106
164
39
366
1,305
526
252
78
449
1,305
527
354
39
88
297
527
249
278
1,305
305
689
311
1,305
152
230
185
230
171
142
195
Pennsylvania

Count
Column %
1,305
100.0%
552
100.0%
753
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
1,081
100.0%
158
100.0%
39
100.0%
27
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
617
100.0%
2
100.0%
5
100.0%
261
100.0%
6
100.0%
112
100.0%
77
100.0%
65
100.0%
24
100.0%
3
100.0%
59
100.0%
44
100.0%
10
100.0%
9
100.0%
8
100.0%
3
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
498
100.0%
517
100.0%
290
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
276
100.0%
628
100.0%
401
100.0%
498
100.0%
208
100.0%
172
100.0%
118
100.0%
290
100.0%
65
100.0%
73
100.0%
59
100.0%
93
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
422
100.0%
428
100.0%
288
100.0%
167
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
850
100.0%
455
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
688
100.0%
393
100.0%
162
100.0%
62
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
260
100.0%
428
100.0%
187
100.0%
206
100.0%
80
100.0%
82
100.0%
25
100.0%
37
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
316
100.0%
295
100.0%
383
100.0%
245
100.0%
66
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
558
100.0%
142
100.0%
88
100.0%
72
100.0%
115
100.0%
27
100.0%
303
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
185
100.0%
1,120
100.0%
185
100.0%
112
100.0%
56
100.0%
17
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
630
100.0%
106
100.0%
164
100.0%
39
100.0%
366
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
526
100.0%
252
100.0%
78
100.0%
449
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
527
100.0%
354
100.0%
39
100.0%
88
100.0%
297
100.0%
527
100.0%
249
100.0%
278
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
305
100.0%
689
100.0%
311
100.0%
1,305
100.0%
152
100.0%
230
100.0%
185
100.0%
230
100.0%
171
100.0%
142
100.0%
195
100.0%
How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
Likely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter ScreenLikely Voter Screen
Sample Size1,305
552
753
1,305
1,081
158
39
27
1,305
617
2
5
261
6
112
77
65
24
3
59
44
10
9
8
3
1,305
498
517
290
1,305
276
628
401
498
208
172
118
290
65
73
59
93
1,305
422
428
288
167
1,305
850
455
1,305
688
393
162
62
1,305
260
428
187
206
80
82
25
37
1,305
316
295
383
245
66
1,305
558
142
88
72
115
27
303
1,305
185
1,120
185
112
56
17
1,305
630
106
164
39
366
1,305
526
252
78
449
1,305
527
354
39
88
297
527
249
278
1,305
305
689
311
1,305
152
230
185
230
171
142
195
Certain to vote

Count
Column %
1,015
77.8%
441
79.9%
574
76.2%
1,015
77.8%
871
80.6%
102
64.6%
25
64.1%
17
63.0%
1,015
77.8%
504
81.7%
2
100.0%
4
80.0%
161
61.7%
4
66.7%
92
82.1%
64
83.1%
58
89.2%
19
79.2%
3
100.0%
41
69.5%
38
86.4%
8
80.0%
8
88.9%
7
87.5%
2
66.7%
1,015
77.8%
408
81.9%
429
83.0%
178
61.4%
1,015
77.8%
234
84.8%
457
72.8%
324
80.8%
408
81.9%
182
87.5%
145
84.3%
81
68.6%
178
61.4%
53
81.5%
44
60.3%
41
69.5%
40
43.0%
1,015
77.8%
263
62.3%
345
80.6%
259
89.9%
148
88.6%
1,015
77.8%
608
71.5%
407
89.5%
1,015
77.8%
515
74.9%
356
90.6%
93
57.4%
51
82.3%
1,015
77.8%
203
78.1%
312
72.9%
170
90.9%
186
90.3%
47
58.8%
46
56.1%
21
84.0%
30
81.1%
1,015
77.8%
195
61.7%
214
72.5%
324
84.6%
221
90.2%
61
92.4%
1,015
77.8%
448
80.3%
102
71.8%
47
53.4%
46
63.9%
81
70.4%
16
59.3%
275
90.8%
1,015
77.8%
153
82.7%
862
77.0%
153
82.7%
97
86.6%
45
80.4%
11
64.7%
1,015
77.8%
532
84.4%
83
78.3%
129
78.7%
28
71.8%
243
66.4%
1,015
77.8%
456
86.7%
185
73.4%
54
69.2%
320
71.3%
1,015
77.8%
426
80.8%
300
84.7%
30
76.9%
51
58.0%
208
70.0%
426
80.8%
198
79.5%
228
82.0%
1,015
77.8%
215
70.5%
559
81.1%
241
77.5%
1,015
77.8%
106
69.7%
196
85.2%
143
77.3%
182
79.1%
125
73.1%
113
79.6%
150
76.9%
Likely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 50/50

Count
Column %
169
13.0%
72
13.0%
97
12.9%
169
13.0%
122
11.3%
33
20.9%
8
20.5%
6
22.2%
169
13.0%
69
11.2%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
51
19.5%
1
16.7%
15
13.4%
8
10.4%
3
4.6%
5
20.8%
0
0.0%
10
16.9%
4
9.1%
1
10.0%
0
0.0%
1
12.5%
1
33.3%
169
13.0%
59
11.8%
67
13.0%
43
14.8%
169
13.0%
24
8.7%
103
16.4%
42
10.5%
59
11.8%
20
9.6%
18
10.5%
21
17.8%
43
14.8%
9
13.8%
11
15.1%
8
13.6%
15
16.1%
169
13.0%
82
19.4%
54
12.6%
22
7.6%
11
6.6%
169
13.0%
136
16.0%
33
7.3%
169
13.0%
99
14.4%
23
5.9%
37
22.8%
10
16.1%
169
13.0%
37
14.2%
62
14.5%
10
5.3%
13
6.3%
21
26.3%
16
19.5%
4
16.0%
6
16.2%
169
13.0%
63
19.9%
46
15.6%
41
10.7%
17
6.9%
2
3.0%
169
13.0%
75
13.4%
28
19.7%
19
21.6%
10
13.9%
18
15.7%
4
14.8%
15
5.0%
169
13.0%
26
14.1%
143
12.8%
26
14.1%
14
12.5%
8
14.3%
4
23.5%
169
13.0%
61
9.7%
14
13.2%
19
11.6%
3
7.7%
72
19.7%
169
13.0%
47
8.9%
40
15.9%
14
17.9%
68
15.1%
169
13.0%
62
11.8%
38
10.7%
6
15.4%
24
27.3%
39
13.1%
62
11.8%
31
12.4%
31
11.2%
169
13.0%
54
17.7%
76
11.0%
39
12.5%
169
13.0%
27
17.8%
22
9.6%
19
10.3%
28
12.2%
22
12.9%
19
13.4%
32
16.4%
Unlikely to vote, meaning the odds are greater than 0 but less than 50/50

Count
Column %
54
4.1%
23
4.2%
31
4.1%
54
4.1%
40
3.7%
9
5.7%
4
10.3%
1
3.7%
54
4.1%
20
3.2%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
19
7.3%
1
16.7%
3
2.7%
2
2.6%
1
1.5%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
5
8.5%
2
4.5%
0
0.0%
1
11.1%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
54
4.1%
19
3.8%
9
1.7%
26
9.0%
54
4.1%
8
2.9%
31
4.9%
15
3.7%
19
3.8%
3
1.4%
6
3.5%
10
8.5%
26
9.0%
1
1.5%
8
11.0%
3
5.1%
14
15.1%
54
4.1%
30
7.1%
17
4.0%
4
1.4%
3
1.8%
54
4.1%
47
5.5%
7
1.5%
54
4.1%
33
4.8%
7
1.8%
14
8.6%
0
0.0%
54
4.1%
12
4.6%
21
4.9%
5
2.7%
2
1.0%
6
7.5%
8
9.8%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
54
4.1%
20
6.3%
17
5.8%
11
2.9%
4
1.6%
2
3.0%
54
4.1%
17
3.0%
7
4.9%
7
8.0%
9
12.5%
5
4.3%
3
11.1%
6
2.0%
54
4.1%
6
3.2%
48
4.3%
6
3.2%
1
0.9%
3
5.4%
2
11.8%
54
4.1%
21
3.3%
4
3.8%
8
4.9%
2
5.1%
19
5.2%
54
4.1%
10
1.9%
13
5.2%
4
5.1%
27
6.0%
54
4.1%
15
2.8%
10
2.8%
0
0.0%
9
10.2%
20
6.7%
15
2.8%
6
2.4%
9
3.2%
54
4.1%
11
3.6%
32
4.6%
11
3.5%
54
4.1%
7
4.6%
4
1.7%
11
5.9%
10
4.3%
10
5.8%
6
4.2%
6
3.1%
Certain NOT to vote

Count
Column %
67
5.1%
16
2.9%
51
6.8%
67
5.1%
48
4.4%
14
8.9%
2
5.1%
3
11.1%
67
5.1%
24
3.9%
0
0.0%
1
20.0%
30
11.5%
0
0.0%
2
1.8%
3
3.9%
3
4.6%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
3
5.1%
0
0.0%
1
10.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
67
5.1%
12
2.4%
12
2.3%
43
14.8%
67
5.1%
10
3.6%
37
5.9%
20
5.0%
12
2.4%
3
1.4%
3
1.7%
6
5.1%
43
14.8%
2
3.1%
10
13.7%
7
11.9%
24
25.8%
67
5.1%
47
11.1%
12
2.8%
3
1.0%
5
3.0%
67
5.1%
59
6.9%
8
1.8%
67
5.1%
41
6.0%
7
1.8%
18
11.1%
1
1.6%
67
5.1%
8
3.1%
33
7.7%
2
1.1%
5
2.4%
6
7.5%
12
14.6%
0
0.0%
1
2.7%
67
5.1%
38
12.0%
18
6.1%
7
1.8%
3
1.2%
1
1.5%
67
5.1%
18
3.2%
5
3.5%
15
17.0%
7
9.7%
11
9.6%
4
14.8%
7
2.3%
67
5.1%
0
0.0%
67
6.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
67
5.1%
16
2.5%
5
4.7%
8
4.9%
6
15.4%
32
8.7%
67
5.1%
13
2.5%
14
5.6%
6
7.7%
34
7.6%
67
5.1%
24
4.6%
6
1.7%
3
7.7%
4
4.5%
30
10.1%
24
4.6%
14
5.6%
10
3.6%
67
5.1%
25
8.2%
22
3.2%
20
6.4%
67
5.1%
12
7.9%
8
3.5%
12
6.5%
10
4.3%
14
8.2%
4
2.8%
7
3.6%
How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?How likely are you to vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
Likely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely VotersLikely Voters vs. Unlikely Voters
Sample Size1,305
552
753
1,305
1,081
158
39
27
1,305
617
2
5
261
6
112
77
65
24
3
59
44
10
9
8
3
1,305
498
517
290
1,305
276
628
401
498
208
172
118
290
65
73
59
93
1,305
422
428
288
167
1,305
850
455
1,305
688
393
162
62
1,305
260
428
187
206
80
82
25
37
1,305
316
295
383
245
66
1,305
558
142
88
72
115
27
303
1,305
185
1,120
185
112
56
17
1,305
630
106
164
39
366
1,305
526
252
78
449
1,305
527
354
39
88
297
527
249
278
1,305
305
689
311
1,305
152
230
185
230
171
142
195
Likely Voters

Count
Column %
1,184
90.7%
513
92.9%
671
89.1%
1,184
90.7%
993
91.9%
135
85.4%
33
84.6%
23
85.2%
1,184
90.7%
573
92.9%
2
100.0%
4
80.0%
212
81.2%
5
83.3%
107
95.5%
72
93.5%
61
93.8%
24
100.0%
3
100.0%
51
86.4%
42
95.5%
9
90.0%
8
88.9%
8
100.0%
3
100.0%
1,184
90.7%
467
93.8%
496
95.9%
221
76.2%
1,184
90.7%
258
93.5%
560
89.2%
366
91.3%
467
93.8%
202
97.1%
163
94.8%
102
86.4%
221
76.2%
62
95.4%
55
75.3%
49
83.1%
55
59.1%
1,184
90.7%
345
81.8%
399
93.2%
281
97.6%
159
95.2%
1,184
90.7%
744
87.5%
440
96.7%
1,184
90.7%
614
89.2%
379
96.4%
130
80.2%
61
98.4%
1,184
90.7%
240
92.3%
374
87.4%
180
96.3%
199
96.6%
68
85.0%
62
75.6%
25
100.0%
36
97.3%
1,184
90.7%
258
81.6%
260
88.1%
365
95.3%
238
97.1%
63
95.5%
1,184
90.7%
523
93.7%
130
91.5%
66
75.0%
56
77.8%
99
86.1%
20
74.1%
290
95.7%
1,184
90.7%
179
96.8%
1,005
89.7%
179
96.8%
111
99.1%
53
94.6%
15
88.2%
1,184
90.7%
593
94.1%
97
91.5%
148
90.2%
31
79.5%
315
86.1%
1,184
90.7%
503
95.6%
225
89.3%
68
87.2%
388
86.4%
1,184
90.7%
488
92.6%
338
95.5%
36
92.3%
75
85.2%
247
83.2%
488
92.6%
229
92.0%
259
93.2%
1,184
90.7%
269
88.2%
635
92.2%
280
90.0%
1,184
90.7%
133
87.5%
218
94.8%
162
87.6%
210
91.3%
147
86.0%
132
93.0%
182
93.3%
Unlikely Voters

Count
Column %
121
9.3%
39
7.1%
82
10.9%
121
9.3%
88
8.1%
23
14.6%
6
15.4%
4
14.8%
121
9.3%
44
7.1%
0
0.0%
1
20.0%
49
18.8%
1
16.7%
5
4.5%
5
6.5%
4
6.2%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
8
13.6%
2
4.5%
1
10.0%
1
11.1%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
121
9.3%
31
6.2%
21
4.1%
69
23.8%
121
9.3%
18
6.5%
68
10.8%
35
8.7%
31
6.2%
6
2.9%
9
5.2%
16
13.6%
69
23.8%
3
4.6%
18
24.7%
10
16.9%
38
40.9%
121
9.3%
77
18.2%
29
6.8%
7
2.4%
8
4.8%
121
9.3%
106
12.5%
15
3.3%
121
9.3%
74
10.8%
14
3.6%
32
19.8%
1
1.6%
121
9.3%
20
7.7%
54
12.6%
7
3.7%
7
3.4%
12
15.0%
20
24.4%
0
0.0%
1
2.7%
121
9.3%
58
18.4%
35
11.9%
18
4.7%
7
2.9%
3
4.5%
121
9.3%
35
6.3%
12
8.5%
22
25.0%
16
22.2%
16
13.9%
7
25.9%
13
4.3%
121
9.3%
6
3.2%
115
10.3%
6
3.2%
1
0.9%
3
5.4%
2
11.8%
121
9.3%
37
5.9%
9
8.5%
16
9.8%
8
20.5%
51
13.9%
121
9.3%
23
4.4%
27
10.7%
10
12.8%
61
13.6%
121
9.3%
39
7.4%
16
4.5%
3
7.7%
13
14.8%
50
16.8%
39
7.4%
20
8.0%
19
6.8%
121
9.3%
36
11.8%
54
7.8%
31
10.0%
121
9.3%
19
12.5%
12
5.2%
23
12.4%
20
8.7%
24
14.0%
10
7.0%
13
6.7%